JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE NO.9-2019

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A GENERIC FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING URBAN FLOODING UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIET NAM: SYNTHESIZING KEY RESULTS FROM HA TINH, NINH THUAN AND BINH THUAN PROVINCES

Huynh Thi Lan Huong⁽¹⁾, Koos Neefjes⁽²⁾, Nguyen Xuan Hien⁽¹⁾, Tran Van Tra⁽¹⁾,
Dang Linh Chi⁽¹⁾, Duong Hong Nhung^(1)
(1)Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change
⁽²⁾Climate Sense

Abstract: Viet Nam is among the nations most severely affected by climate change. In a recent effort to respond to the adverse effects of climate change on urban flooding, the Technical Support Unit (TSU), ENABLE-Belgian Development Agency, the Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, and other institutes have studied the impacts of climate change on urban flooding in the provinces of Ha Tinh, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan. Through different studies, climate change impacts on urban flooding have been determined. These three studies provide a generic framework to determine climate change impacts on urban flooding. Firstly downscaling of climate change scenarios is used to determine climate variables within each region. Hydrological and hydraulics models are then utilize to drive the simulation of the rainfall-runoff process as well as the response of water level during flood events. Based on the modelling, structural and non-structural measures are proposed to reduce the impacts of flooding. In an additional effort, flood warning systems would also be installed to provide timely warning to the authorities as well as the people. The generic framework has been agreed through consultation workshops as well as training workshops from August 2018 to March 2019.

Keywords: Climate change, flooding, urban planning, downscaling, modelling.

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LOW CARBON TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN VIET NAM

Le Ngoc Cau⁽¹⁾, Pham Thi Quynh⁽¹⁾, Makoto Kato^(2)
(1)Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN)
⁽²⁾Overseas Environmental Cooperation Center (OECC), Japan

Abstract: This paper presents a multicriteria low carbon assessment for seven sectors identified in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Viet Nam including energy efficiency, power generation, transport, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and waste, plus F-gas. Specific technologies for sectoral mitigation options identified in Viet Nam’s NDC were selected and assessed. An analysis and discussion on policy and investment barriers for deploying the identified low carbon technologies for seven sectors is also presented. Key sector-specific challenges for implementation of the identified low carbon technologies for enabling Viet Nam’s NDC are discussed. For future steps, the sharing of information between stakeholders prior to the planning of technology introduction would help to promote effective deployment of the technologies in Viet Nam.

Keywords: low carbon technology, climate change mitigation, multi-criteria assessment, nationally determined contribution.

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ASSESSMENTS OF VULNERABILITY DUE
TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN HA TINH CITY

Mai Van Khiem, Tran Dinh Trong, Le Van Tuan,
Do Thanh Tung, Vu Van Thang
Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change

Abstract: Climate change is one of the most serious challenges to Ha Tinh City in the coming time, affecting the natural environment, socio-economic development, and especially people’s lives. This paper assesses the vulnerability due to climate change in Ha Tinh City by the ADB/NDF/ICEM and UNDP/GEF toolkits through investigating the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity data of Ha Tinh City. The result shows that most communes and wards have moderate levels of vulnerability, particularly, Dai Nai ward is at a high level and Bac Ha at a low level. In the future, due to the increased risk of climate change, the vulnerability tends to increase, especially at the end of the century. The level of vulnerability of 13/16 wards/communes may increase by 1 or 2 levels, particularly, the Dai Nai, Nguyen Du, Tan Giang and Thach Hung communes/wards would have very high vulnerability. On the contrary, 4 out of 16 communes/wards (accounting for 25%) would be at average level of vulnerability, in which, vulnerability level of thee communes (Thach Linh, Tran Phu, Ha Huy Tap) would be unchanged compared to the current situation.

Keywords: Exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, vulnerability, climate change impacts.

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FUTURE CHANGES IN EXTREME RAINFALL OVER THAILAND
USING MULTI-BIAS CORRECTED GCM RAINFALL DATA

Winai Chaowiwa, Kanoksri Sarinnapakorn, Sutat Weesakul
Hydro-Informatics Institute, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract: Climate change is a controversial issue presented in the media. Obviously, global climate change affects local climate significantly, especially extreme rainfall frequently causes more flood and drought problem. The impact results in loss of life, resources and agriculture products interrupting the national economic progress. Even though many institutes have predicted the future climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario using Global Circulation Model, the predicted climate results depend on the initial conditions and modelled assumptions. Several predicted climate results might confuse audiences because they provide high uncertainty of climate prediction. Coping with the uncertainty of climate prediction requires an understanding of the future extreme rainfall possibility, so the consistency of extreme rainfall analysis is used to investigate the extreme rainfall in the aspect of duration, frequency, and intensity in the national scale. This study aimed to analyse the consistency index of future extreme rainfall using multi-bias corrected GCM under the CMIP5 Project. Extreme rainfall indices were calculated using 20 bias-corrected GCM climate data sets under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Furthermore consistency analysis and statistical hypothesis testing were used to explore the extreme rainfall possibility areas. The focused extreme rainfall indices comprised CWD, CDD, Rx1D, Rx3D, Rx5D, R10mm, R20mm, R95PT, SDII and PRCPTOT indices. The new approach of consistency analysis in this study used hypothesis test for comparing 2 means to enhance a greater reliability of extreme rainfall indices. The results revealed significant changes of extreme rainfall indices including mean CWD increased 28 to 41% in RCP4.5 and 26 to 37% in RCP8.5. Mean R20mm increased 5 to 53% in RCP4.5 and 3 to 61% in RCP8.5. Finally, mean Rx5D increased 38 to 54% in RCP4.5 and 26 to 53% in RCP8.5. The resulting consistency indices could be used to identify areas where extreme rainfall indices have changed.

Keywords: Climate change, extreme rainfall indices, bias correction technique, consistency analysis.

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IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON INDUSTRY AND TRADE IN BINH THUAN PROVINCE

Mai Van Khiem, Le Anh Ngoc, Vo Thi Nguyen, Huynh Thi My Linh
Viet Nam institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change

Abstract: This paper presents the results of assessing the impacts of climate change (CC) on industry and trade in Binh Thuan province. Assessing the impacts of climate change at the present and in the future. The temperature and rainfall scenarios used are RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Flooded scenario for both the present and the future is calculated with 20% flood frequency. Evaluation results show that CC impacts on the fields of Industry and Trade as: electricity production, seafood processing, minerals processing, factories, industrial clusters, traditional craft villages, trade centres, supermarkets, markets, petroleum stores, warehouses.

Keywords: Climate change impact, industry and trade, Binh Thuan Province.

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IMPACT OF ENSO ON WATER DISCHARGE
AND SEDIMENT LOAD IN LOWER MEKONG RIVER

Dang Thi Ha
School of Maritime Economics and Technology, Ba Ria – Vung Tau University

Abstract: The Mekong River is the second largest river basin in Southeast Asia and strongly influenced by climate change. This paper was based on high temporal resolution of water discharge and suspended sediment concentration at Can Tho and My Thuan stations during the 2009-2016 period, showed that the water discharge and sediment supplies by the Mekong strongly varied, and influenced by ENSO events (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Our results obtained showed that during the La Niña event (2010-2011), water supply increased by about 30% and the sediment supply by 55%. In contrast, during the El Niño event (2015-2016) the water supply decreased by 20% and the sediment supply by 50%. Finally, the present water discharge of the Mekong River to the sea can be estimated to be 400km³/yr, ±100km³/yr and the present sediment supply to the sea can be estimated to be 40 Mt/yr, ±20 Mt/yr, depending on ENSO events.

Keywords: Mekong; river discharge; sediment; ENSO; El Niño; La Niña.

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FLOODING IMPACTS ON RICE CULTIVATING AREA UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN TRA VINH PROVINCE

Mai Van Khiem⁽¹⁾, Tran Tuan Hoang⁽¹⁾, Phan Thi Diem Quy⁽¹⁾
Huynh Thi My Linh⁽¹⁾, Ho Cong Toan ⁽¹⁾, Pham Thanh Long⁽¹⁾,
Nguyen Thi Thu Hang^(2)
(1)Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change
⁽²⁾Sai Gon University

Abstract: Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are a challenge for many ecosystems, biodiversity and environmental resources, greatly influencing human social life. In this paper, we assess the impact of flooding in the rice cultivating area under climate change and sea level rise by 2100 in Tra Vinh province, through gathering and inheriting database methods, model (MIKE FLOOD) and geographic information system. The results indicated that Cau Ke and Chau Thanh districts have flooded areas on rice growing land larger than other districts. The results obtained in this study can be used to provide options for crop improvement, food security in the region and contributing to the local sustainable development.

Keywords: Climate change, sea level rise, rice cultivation area, Tra Vinh, MIKE FLOOD

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CALCULATION OF DESIGNED FLOOD IN WEAK DATA
REGION IN VIET NAM USING WIN-TR55 MODEL

Doan Thi Noi⁽¹⁾, Dang Quang Thinh^(2)
(1)Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Transport and Communications
⁽²⁾Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change

Abstract: Road transportation infrastructure is of great importance in the development of a nation. Viet Nam is facing many challenges in developing road infrastructure due to lack of rainfall and flow data required for calculation of designed flood, especially in mountainous areas. Furthermore, many water drainages have been damaged by heavy rain and severely affected by climate change. In this study, the Win-TR55 based on SCS method is employed for calculating storm runoff volume, discharge and hydrograph to estimate designed flood values for small watersheds. In order to use TR55, parameters for calculating designed flood including rainfall, soil type and land use map are required. This program is widely used in many countries, but has not been applied to the small basins in Viet Nam because of data missing. Tong Soong bridge on the National Highway No.31 crossing Dinh Lap district, Lang Son province, Viet Nam was selected as a case study. The study shows a great potential of the Win-TR55 method to estimate the hydrograph for small and medium watershed in Viet Nam.

Keywords: Win-TR55, designed flood, data missing, Tong Soong watershed.

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GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN AGRICULTURE, BUILDINGS AND WASTER SECTORS IN HO CHI MINH CITY

Le Anh Ngoc⁽¹⁾, Nguyen Van Tin⁽¹⁾, Pham Duc An⁽¹⁾,
Vo Thi Nguyen⁽¹⁾, Bao Thanh^(2)
(1)Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change
⁽²⁾Ho Chi Minh University of Natural Resources and Environment

Abstract: Climate change (CC) is a common problem for all people with a strong influence on the world. One of the main causes of climate change is greenhouse gases (GHG). Viet Nam has implemented the National greenhouse gas inventories for five sectors: agriculture, energy, industrial processes, waste, land use change and forestry. Being the biggest economic development centre in Viet Nam, Ho Chi Minh City has emitted numerous amounts of greenhouse gases every year. This paper presents results of GHG calculations in agriculture, waste and buildings in Ho Chi Minh City applying the 2006 IPCC guideline. It is found that greenhouse gases in Ho Chi Minh were about 1.1 million, 3 million and 0.4 million tons of CO₂ equivalent in agriculture, waste and buildings, respectively.

Keywords: IPCC Guideline 2006, greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture, waste, buildings.

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IMPACT OF SATELLITE OBSERVED SST ON INTENSITY AND TRACK SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER VIET NAM EAST SEA: A CASE STUDY OF TYPHOON NALGAE (2011)

Nguyen Thi Thanh⁽¹⁾, Nguyen Xuan Hien⁽¹⁾, Hoang Duc Cuong^(2)
(1)Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change
⁽²⁾The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting

Abstract: Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important thermal factors affecting typhoon. This paper was carried out to examine the impact of satellite observed SST on intensity and track simulation of tropical cyclone over Viet Nam East sea by using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected typhoon Nalgae (2011) for studying the SST impact. Three different sets of SSTs were used in this study: (1) SST from GFS analysis is provided for the initial condition and kept unchanged during the 72 hr simulation; (2) SST from Remote Sensing Systems (RESS) is used for the initial condition and kept unchanged during the 72 hr simulation; (3) SST from RESS is updated every 24 h for the initial and boundary conditions. The simulated results show that the using SST from satellite data for both only initial condition case and initial and boundary conditions case significantly improve the simulated intensity of typhoon due to improved simulation of latent heat and heat fluxes.

Keywords: Sea surface temperature, SST, typhoon, tropical cyclone, the Viet Nam East Sea

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ZONING AGRO-CLIMATIC FACTORS AND EVALUATING ADAPTATION ABILITY OF ARABICA COFFEE IN MUONG ANG DISTRICT, DIEN BIEN PROVINCE

Nguyen Ngoc Anh, Nguyen Huu Quyen, Tran Thi Tam,
Duong Hai Yen, Duong Van Kham
Viet Nam Institutes of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change

Abstract: Muong Ang is a mountainous district in the middle of Dien Bien province (the northwest of Viet Nam). Its climatic conditions are quite different compared to the surrounding areas. Specifically, mountainous terrain with a high slope and severe division leads to considerably differentiation in terms of meteorological and hydrological conditions. Muong Ang district is characterised by humid tropical monsoon climate; there are many extreme weather phenomena, e.g. heat wave, unevenly distributed large rainfall, diurnal temperature variation, large seasonal temperature variations. Besides, natural disasters occur quite frequently, such as erosion, landslides, floods and droughts [4]. However, the difference between agricultural meteorology and topography has created a unique landscape in Muong Ang, which is suitable for many kinds of tropical plants with high economic value. Typically, Arabica coffee can adapt very well to the climatic conditions in Muong Ang with high productivity and good quality, which is gradually forming the Muong Ang coffee brand in the domestic and international market.

In order to confirm the correctness of selecting Arabica coffee to be the main crop in the economic development orientation of Muong Ang district, we need to study the agro-climatic conditions and the agro-climatic zoning of the district and assess the ecological adaptation ability of the coffee in the ecological conditions of Muong Ang, Dien Bien province.

Keywords: Dien Bien, Arabica coffee, agro-climatic zoning, ecological adaptation, Arabica coffee, Viet Nam.

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