JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE No.27, Sep 2023

Tải bìa tạp chí: TẠI ĐÂY

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THE ASSESSMENTS OF WIND CHARACTERISTICS AT THIEN NGA – HAI AU FIELD AREA FOR OIL EXPLOITATION

Pham Thi Thanh Nga(1), Vu Van Thang(1), Ta Huu Chinh(1),
Nguyen Lam Anh(2), Bui Trong Han(2)
(1)The Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change

(2)Science Research and Engineering Institute

Received: 4 August 2023; Accepted: 29 August 2023

Abstract: The paper aims to identify wind characteristics at the Thien Nga – Hai Au field area using high resolution data generated by the WRF-ARW model. The results indicate that Northeast and Southwest winds are the most frequent, as compared to other  directions. The highest wind speed values are observed during the winter monsoon. These findings exhibit reasonable consistency with those of climate survey in the Southern Bien Dong Sea. In addition, the study calculates the return period for extreme wind values, comparing between the cases of monsoon activity and storm activity. The extreme wind speed values are higher in winter (32.0 – 34.0 m/s) compared to summer (29.0 – 30.0 m/s), corresponding to return periods of 50 – 100 years. It is found that highest extreme wind speeds are associated with storm events (40.0 – 46.0 m/s).
Keywords: Wind characteristics, Extreme wind, WRF, Thien Nga – Hai Au.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55659/2525-2496/27.85948

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WAVE ANALYSIS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIEN NGA – HAI AU OIL FIELD

 Pham Thi Thanh Nga(1), Le Quoc Huy(1), Pham Van Tien(1), Doan Thi Thu Ha(1),
Tran Thanh Thuy (1), Nguyen Lam Anh(2), Bui Trong Han(2)
(1)The Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change

(2)Science Research and Engineering Institute

Received: 2 August 2023; Accepted: 25 August 2023

Abstract: This study utilizes the SWAN model to simulate wave data, subsequently comparing it with ERA5 and CMEMS wave reanalysis datasets. Our analysis demonstrates that the SWAN-simulated wave data are more consistent with observations compared to ERA5 and CMEMS reanalyzed wave data. The predominant wave directions are Northeast and Southwest, with occurrence frequencies of 43.87% and 24.24%, and maximum significant wave heights of 7.72 m and 3.28 m, respectively. Significant wave heights for 50 and 100 year return periods are 8.17 m and 8.53 m in the NE direction, 3.44 m and 3.56 m in the SW direction, 3.78 m and 3.84 m during the Southwest monsoon, 10.09 m and 10.45 m during the Northeast monsoon, and 12.8 m and 13.6 m during storms, respectively. These results are instrumental for the structural design of the Thien Nga – Hai Au oil field in the Southern region of the East Sea Viet Nam.
Keywords: Extreme wave analysis, SWAN model, offshore structures.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55659/2525-2496/27.85950

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ASSESSMENT OF MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES AND THEIR VALUE
AT A 100-YEAR RETURN PERIOD

Nguyen Dang Mau(1), Nguyen Huu Quyen(1), Tran Minh Tri(1), Tran Thanh Thuy(1),
Do Van Man(1), Hosam Ali(2), Muehlbauer Andreas(2), Osibanjo Olabosipo(2)
(1)The Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change

(2)Center for Property Risk Solutions, Research Division, FM Global

Received: 16 August 2023; Accepted: 8 September 2023

Abstract: Hailstorms are relatively rare phenomena in Viet Nam, and understanding their characteristics is crucial for assessing the potential impact of hail events on various sectors. This study explores the maximum hailstone sizes observed in Viet Nam from 1961 to 2021 and uses the Gumbel distribution to estimate hailstone sizes at different return periods.  Hail events in Viet Nam occur infrequently, with a common occurrence rate of less than once per year. However, some regions in the North, especially in the mountainous areas of the NorthWestern region, experience hail events approximately 1 – 2 times per year. The study records the largest hailstone sizes observed during the research period, with notable examples including 12 cm at the Bac Ha station and 10 cm at the Chiem Hoa station. These sizes exceed the calculated values for a 100-year return period, emphasizing the need for further research and preparedness. Despite the limited dataset of hailstone measurements, the Gumbel distribution is found to be a useful tool for estimating hailstone sizes at a 100-year return period. The theoretical estimates closely align with the observed values. At a 15-year return period, the most common maximum hailstone sizes range from approximately 1 – 3 cm, while at a 100-year return period, prevalent maximum hailstone sizes vary from 2.5 to 5.0 cm.
Keywords: Hailstorms, hailstone sizes, Viet Nam, Gumbel distribution, return periods.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55659/2525-2496/27.85954

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EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION OF THE WATER USE PLAN
IN THE BA RIVER BASIN

Ngo Thi Thuy(1), Tran Van Tra(2), Trinh Nhu Trang(1), Nguyen Thi Van(1)
(1)The Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change

(2)Viet Nam Water Resources Institute

Received: 22 August 2023; Accepted: 18 September 2023

Abstract: The Ba River basin has abundant water resources for agriculture and power generation. To respond to the socio-economic development of the basin, the water work system has been planning to improve the efficiency of water resource allocation, serving sustainable development. This study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of water work plans built on the Ba River basin by assessing their ability to supply water for agriculture, domestic, industries and services. Water balance calculations show that water demand in irrigation areas in the Ba River basin increases significantly corresponding to basin development, especially in the Krong Pa and Nam Bac An Khe regions. With the application of irrigation planning, agricultural development plans and changes in land use structure, water resource allocation in the Ba River basin has been improved in the future. The effectiveness of the planning is obviously shown in the Upper Ayun, Ayun Pa, Upper and Lower Dong Cam where water demand increases sharply and water shortages are controlled, ensuring water supply requirements for irrigation and other sectors of over 85% and over 90%, respectively.
Keywords: Ba River basin, water supply reliability, water work plan.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55659/2525-2496/27.85956

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BUILDING A REAL-TIME INFORMATION AND FLASH FLOODS, LANDSLIDES EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN MOUNTAINOUS AND MIDLAND AREAS
OF VIET NAM

Trinh Thu Phuong(1), Nguyen Tien Kien(1), Luong Huu Dung(2),
Luong Phuong Linh(3)
(1)National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting

(2)The Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change
(3)Foreign Language Specialised School

Received: 10 August 2023; Accepted: 7 September 2023

Abstract: Flash flood is a natural disaster occurring shortly on small scale albeit with great devastation. In fact, the current flash flood events, landslide investigations and surveys from research agencies and local authorities play an important role in creating diverse data sources for researching and exploring the signs as well as modeling adjustment for detecting the risks. This article presents the results of making a Web portal used for the reception and integration of  early warnings from citizens, local authorities and governing bodies against flash floods and landslides. This system collects real time rainfall data from the CDH of Meteorology and Hydrology Administration, integrates the numerical weather prediction WRF (the Weather Research and Forescast) model with 6 h, 24 h, 48 h forecast lead time and SEAFFGS product results. Also, it would elaborate on the system providing tools for aiding, analysing, producing and disseminating warning bulletins against flash floods and landslides for mountainous and midland areas, sending warning message about high risk flash flood and landslide with the total observed rainfall or rainfall forecast over the threshold via email or Zalo automatically. This information which can be accessed everywhere via the internet, will effectively support the forecasters in mornitoring and publishing the flash flood and landslide warning bulletins; help the authorities and citizens become aware of natural disasters early and mitigate damage caused by flash floods and landslides.
Keywords: Flash flood, early warning system, Flash Flood Rainfall Threshold.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55659/2525-2496/27.85960

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APPLICATION OF GOOGLE EARTH ENGINE PLATFORM TO IDENTIFY FLOODED AREAS AND ASSESS FLOOD DEPTH IN QUANG TRI PROVINCE

Giang Hoang Hiep, Nguyen Thanh Bang, Tran Dang Hung
The Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change

Received: 11 August 2023; Accepted: 5 September 2023

Abstract: In recent years, the Application of the Google Earth Engine Platform has gained substantial recognition as a powerful tool for remote sensing and geospatial analysis. This paper delves into its utility within the context of flood monitoring and assessment, focusing on  Quang Tri Province for the historic flood in 2020. The study leverages the platform’s capabilities to identify and delineate flooded areas, offering a timely and accurate overview of the extent of inundation during flood events. Moreover, the paper demonstrates how the Google Earth Engine Platform enables the assessment of flood depths, providing critical insights for disaster management and response planning. By amalgamating satellite imagery, terrain data, and hydrological information, the study showcases the platform’s potential to enhance flood-related decision-making in vulnerable regions like Quang Tri Province. The findings underscore the significance of innovative geospatial technologies in addressing the challenges posed by flooding, ultimately contributing to more effective disaster mitigation strategies and informed policymaking.
Keywords: Google Earth Engine, inundation, Central Viet Nam, Remote sensing, Sentinel-1, automatic.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55659/2525-2496/27.85964

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BUILDING INTEGRATED TOOLS FOR FLOOD WARNING AND INUNDATION FORECAST OF RIVER BASINS IN KHANH HOA PROVINCE

Pham Thanh Long(1), Nguyen Thao Hien(1), Nguyen Thu Huong(1),
Le Thanh Trang(2)
(1)Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology and Climate change

(2)Ho Chi Minh City Department of Science and Technology

Received: 18 August 2023; Accepted: 15 September 2023

Abstract: In order to strengthen the flood warning and inundation forecasting system in the South Central region, the authors aim to study an integrated tool for flood disaster prevention, pilot application in two main river basins in Khanh Hoa Province. This area often suffers great damage due to the influence of storms and tropical depressions, which can be mentioned as floods in 1980, 1986, 1993, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2009, 2013, and 2016. The tool is the connection of scientific and technical products in automatic monitoring equipment and transmits real-time rainfall, water level data; as input for forecasting and warning models of flood and inundation risks; provides forecast data to users through the WebGIS online platform. The article details how to build an integrated tool for flood warning, inundation forecasting and verifying in a historical flood in 2016. The study has great significance in improving the effectiveness of natural disaster prevention, storm and flood monitoring; optimal and timely support in case of emergency. At the same time, it contributes to the forecasting of Viet Nam’s Hydrometeorological Sector.
Keywords: Flood warning, inundation forecasting, integrated tools, model, WebGIS, Khanh Hoa.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55659/2525-2496/27.85972

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